If you’re worried that the grocery store shortages of 2020 may be coming back…
Well, I’m right there with you.
Because two ICE raids at dairy farms have exposed a huge vulnerability impacting an estimated 79% of the US milk supply.
And as those raids intensify…the risk goes up.
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Immigrant dairy farm workers produce an estimated 79% of America’s milk supply, which is all well and good until ICE starts raiding farms and arresting workers.
Of course, this isn’t a phenomenon that’s limited to dairy – farms are being raided all over, with impacts on the fresh food supply across America.
California is particularly hard-hit – which is a problem because it produces 75% of American-made fruits and nuts!
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An estimated 79% of the nation’s milk supply is harvested and processed by immigrant workers, and recent ICE raids have highlighted just how vulnerable our milk supply is to disruption.
More specifically, two ICE raids have brought into clear focus that things could get rough very quickly…
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The first ICE raid was at Pleasant Valley Farm in April – in Vermont.
You probably know Vermont as a major milk producer (Vermont cheddar, Ben & Jerry’s ice cream, etc.)
Well, Pleasant Valley Farm is one of Vermont’s biggest dairy operations – and they just lost eight workers.
Now, that may not seem like a lot (because it’s not), but it’s just the tip of the iceberg…
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Let’s say you work at Pleasant Valley Farm, and you missed work that day.
Maybe it was your day off.
Or maybe you were just sick!
Whatever the reason…
Would you come in the day after?
Because – what if they come back?
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Even if your paperwork is 100% in order…
Would you want to deal with the hassle? Work stopped, interrogations, all that stuff.
Maybe you’d try and go somewhere else for a little while, lay low, switch industries. These are physically demanding jobs, but they aren’t especially difficult to learn.
And of course…
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What if you worked at another dairy farm down the road? One that hadn’t been hit by ICE…at least not yet?
Well, they went to Pleasant Valley…only a matter of time before they come to your farm too, right?
That’s the fear.
And this isn’t just me spinning a story – we’ve seen between 20% and 75% worker absenteeism in the days and weeks following ICE raids at farms and factories.
So, sure, ICE may “just” arrest a few people – but then a bunch of other folks decide to stop coming.
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The second raid was just this month at Outlook Dairy in Lovington, New Mexico – near the Texas border.
This time, they arrested eleven members of staff.
New Mexico is another big milk producer – in fact, New Mexico dairy farms produce about 8.1 billion pounds of milk per year.
That’s…a lot of milk.
And given all the issues we just discussed, it’s another flashpoint that could cause huge issues in the dairy supply chain.
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We’re talking here about fresh milk, cheese, butter.
Not chips and cookies.
Chips and cookies can sit on the shelf for a couple months, no harm done, while factories retool or production shifts.
Dairy doesn’t have that kind of flexibility.
It needs to be harvested and stored properly, or shortages could begin.
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And of course, when you have an issue where supply has dramatically fallen…
But demand stays more or less constant…
The only answer is for prices to increase.
That means you and I could be paying more at the store very soon, depending on how widespread the labor shortage becomes.
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There are, of course, always alternatives if dairy milk becomes too expensive.
Almond milk, coconut milk (I’ve got recommendations), oat milk, and soy milk all can provide you with many of the nutrients you get from milk.
The taste isn’t the same, and it all takes some getting used to, but that’s always an option.
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A lot from here depends on what ICE does next.
Do they step back from raiding farms, or do they push even harder?
When we have our answer, we’ll know what’s coming for milk prices in the months to come.
Meanwhile…
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I’m passionate about covering these important food stories, and if you’re excited to hear them, make sure to follow The Coconut Mama. Click here to access The Coconut Mama’s profile page and be sure to hit the Follow button here or at the top of this article!
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