In-N-Out’s burgers are absolutely fantastic.
So are their shakes and fries – especially if you get them animal-style!
(Really, their whole menu – especially the secret menu – is amazing.)
They only serve high-quality ingredients, like fresh (never frozen) beef.
This amazingly curated experience has some very specific limitations, however – because there are some states that will just never be worth it for In-N-Out to expand into.
Let me explain the details…
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If you’re not going to freeze hamburger meat, it’s generally going to be ok to consume, with good refrigeration, for 1-2 days, according to the FDA. (Not health advice!)
Thanks to modern logistics, it’s possible to supply that anywhere in the country.
But that’s not the same thing as it being cheap to supply anywhere in the country.
Let’s just take a simple example:
In October 2024, the average price of a pound of ground beef in the USA was $5.59.
I don’t pretend to know what it was at your grocery store, but – probably not too far away from that, right?
Well…
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Some states were paying quite a bit more.
For example, in Vermont, the average price for a pound of ground beef last quarter was $8.04.
Oregon and Virginia were cited by a Purdue University study for having ground beef prices over $8 a pound as well.
Of course, you can ship it in from out of state (I’m sure plenty of restaurants do), but that’s expensive too!
Beef details are neither here nor there, because there’s a larger point I want to make:
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Logistics are difficult and time-consuming.
So for a restaurant to go to the trouble of setting up a big logistics network – it has to be worth it.
Or put differently – there have to be enough potential customers to make it worth In-N-Out’s while to go to all the trouble.
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Now, you’re probably immediately thinking “oh, so there probably aren’t any In-N-Outs in small towns.”
That’s actually not true!
In-N-Out has a store in Grants Pass, Oregon, another in Roseburg, Oregon, and a third in Washington City, Utah.
None of them is particularly large – Roseburg is the county seat for Douglas County, which has a population of 111,000. Grants Pass’ home county of Josephine has about 88,000 people, while Washington City is in Washington County, population 202,000.
Understanding what’s special about each of those towns helps us understand where In-N-Out could build – and where they probably won’t.
You see, all three of these have something important in common…
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Chances are good you’ve never heard of Washington City, Utah.
But if I mention Zion National Park, I’m sure that rings a bell!
Washington City butts up right against Zion, which gets 5 million annual visitors.
And all those hungry hikers are going to want a burger (or three), right?
Same applies for Grants Pass and Roseburg…
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Grants Pass is nestled right at the junction of I-5 (or “The Five”, as Californians call it), which runs from San Diego up to the Canadian border.
That junction is literally surrounded by state parks and national forests. None of them is Zion-level, but just to cite one of them – the Rogue River-Siskiyou National Forest gets over 900,000 visitors annually.
To say nothing of Cathedral Hills, Valley of the Rogue State Park, Indian Mary Park, Wolf Creek Park, Oregon Caves National Monument…you get the idea.
Meanwhile, Roseburg itself is small (24,000 people) but exists in a county more than 8x that size, and it’s also – again – right on I-5 and near several big state and national parks.
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The vast majority of In-N-Outs are, of course, near major metropolitan areas.
But for those that aren’t, they seem to be really focusing in on:
– Ideally, counties with >80,000 people, plus
– Near big highways, routing to…
– Big tourist attractions
And there are some states that just literally don’t have any counties meeting those criteria.
Here are a few:
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North Dakota only has two counties with a population over 80,000 – Cass County (home to Fargo) and Burleigh County (home to Bismarck, the state capitol).
They’re both on I-94, and they’re both in the wrong part of the state to get the kind of traffic that would make the state interesting to In-N-Out, in my opinion.
You see, the big draw in North Dakota is Theodore Roosevelt National Park – which is in the far west end of the state. Fargo’s right on the Minnesota border on the eastern end, and Bismarck is in the middle of…the middle.
They just aren’t near enough to have the kind of population to sustain an In-N-Out during the tourist offseason.
Especially because, let’s face it…
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North Dakota is…pretty far away from In-N-Out’s current logistics.
So In-N-Out would have to set up a whole logistical chain just to serve that state and its immediate neighbors.
And why would they?
Now, to be clear, I do view several adjoining states as potential areas for an In-N-Out – South Dakota has Mount Rushmore, after all – but I just don’t see it with North Dakota, I’m sorry.
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Vermont is one of the smallest states in the country, and it only has one county with a population over 80,000 (or even over 61,000) – Chittenden County, home to Burlington, the state’s largest city.
Burlington’s problem is that there’s no big “aha” tourist attraction to point to.
There’s lots of skiing, but that’s mostly in the northern part of the state.
And more broadly, Vermont seems to be pretty allergic to chains in general.
Just for example – Vermont doesn’t have a Waffle House or a Chick-fil-A, and plenty of other chains have tried and failed to gain traction in the state.
If you’re In-N-Out, why bother?
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Wyoming has the same issue as North Dakota – its population centers are just too far from the tourist attractions.
Its two largest counties, Laramie, and Natrona, are in the southeastern corner and middle of the state, respectively – while all the tourists go to Jackson Hole, Yellowstone, and Grand Teton – all in the northwestern corner of the state.
I’m sorry, I just don’t see it.
Especially because, if you’re In-N-Out, you can just keep expanding east from Boise, Idaho and put a couple stores on I-15 just over the Idaho state border from Yellowstone and Grand Teton.
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Ok, so I’ve covered a handful of really rural states that just don’t have the combination of population center + tourist attraction to support an In-N-Out…at least if they keep to the same criteria they appear to have been using.
There are two other states I felt it was appropriate to include in this list for very different reasons:
Wisconsin and Hawaii.
Let’s hop right in, starting with Wisconsin…
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Wisconsin is already dominated by an incredibly popular burger chain that shares a lot of similarities with In-N-Out – Culver’s.
They’ve got great burgers, great fries, cheese curds, and fantastic ice cream and shakes.
Plus, it’s a really friendly experience – just like you’d get at In-N-Out.
If I’m In-N-Out, I’m going to leave them to it and focus on growing in places where there isn’t a home team dead-set against me already. You know?
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Hawaii is just a tough place to operate because it’s so remote, and the logistics of transporting food from the mainland are just so expensive.
While I believe In-N-Out could operate there (really, they could operate anywhere they chose to), there are just so many substantial logistical hurdles – and I just don’t think it would be worth it for them.
Sorry Hawaii!
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So there you have it – five states I’m confident will never have an In-N-Out.
Whether it’s low population…
Hometown heroes like Culver’s in Wisconsin…
Or just plain hassle, like in Hawaii!…
Each has a unique and special reason why I think In-N-Out will pass them by.
But here’s the big question:
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Now that we know where In-N-Out is probably NOT going to expand…
And we know where they’re currently planning to expand…
Where do YOU think In-N-Out should build next?
Let us know in the comments!
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